The most boring eviction
There isn’t a lot of point in analysing this week’s midweek eviction when everyone knows Chloe’s going. She was last matched at 1.2 on Betfair at the time of writing, so it would come as a monumental shock if Hardeep doesn’t survive again tonight. The producers are obsessed with turning everything back-to-basics, but surely they must realise that they need to have than two housemates up for eviction if they are to make the live shows interesting and exciting.
Instead, let me take a closer look at the outright market. Since I last posted, Rodrigo was removed from the house which led to a shortening of both Ryan and Kirstie – who is our new favourite to win. It actually didn’t hit me very hard, but in terms of the show, it was a massive loss as he really was probably the most fascinating character in there and one of the funniest.
I agree with the market in that I think the winner is highly likely to come from Ryan (3.6) or Kirstie (2.48). They both seem to be the two most popular with the public and are probably the most famous celebrities in there. Kirstie in particular is receiving consistently strong edits from the producers.
On BOTS last night, a clip to be aired during tonight’s live eviction shows Kirstie amusingly read out some typical British phrases and try to guess what they mean. In doing so, she gets to become an ‘Honorary Brit’ i.e. less American, less foreign and more acceptable. It represents a continuation of the producer favour she has received since was the first to step out of a car and enter the house. Not only is she the most globally-famous celebrity in the house, for my money she is also the funniest. We often see a winner on the show that has a lot of humour about them and it tends to be helpful for the potential future of the brand when the most famous person ends up as the winner. I consider Katie Price, Jim Davidson, Sarah Harding and Gary Busey to be a few recent examples of winners of who were also the most famous.
In terms of fame in the UK, ex-Corrie and Neighbours actor Ryan Thomas is also right up there. He doesn’t have much of a storyline on the show, but we are seeing more of him and up against the pathetic competition in this series, he won’t have to do much to feature right at the business end. A 78% approval rating (of sorts) on the official app was a very impressive score for him over the weekend, and should be taken very seriously in terms of his chances of winning.
Dan the man?
Ex-TOWIE star Dan Osborne (7.2) is currently the third most fancied by the market to win the show. He’s received a couple of good edits, including a nice clip of him shedding a tear in the garden whilst talking about his family. He’s also doing well to distance himself somewhat from Gabby, with the producers focusing more on the Roxanne/Ben and Jermaine/Chloe potential showmances.
However, he arguably has a mountain to climb in order to become more popular than Ryan. His app poll approval rating for a perfectly acceptable clip was only 49%, and he won’t be crying over how much he loves his kids every night.
Dan knows his sexy body is his clear USP and so that’s why we’re seeing so much of it. I don’t think he’s a naturally funny character and there doesn’t seem to be a lot going on upstairs. But a redemption story arc could occur now that Rodrigo is out of the house and therefore no longer requires one. In case you’ve forgotten, though, Dan’s ‘storm’ involved a recording of him threatening to kill an ex-girlfriend if she slept with another man. I think he’s unlikely to overcome a scandal of this extent and end up winning the show, though I will be monitoring what happens with him very closely over the remaining thirteen days. Channel 5 seem to have much better options in Kirstie and Ryan as they are ‘real celebrities’ who are inoffensive and far less controversial.
What do you think of the way the outright market is developing? Does Dan have a genuine chance of winning the show, or is third place his best hope? Is Nick Leeson the best thing since sliced bread? Feel free to have your say in the comments below.