Big Brother 2018 - Pole's Apart?

With only ten days left of Big Brother on Channel 5, we have a relatively exciting eviction tonight as far as this series goes. Akeem, Cian and Tomasz have all been huge characters in the house, and it’s a shame from a viewer’s perspective that we have to lose one.

Akeem is second favourite in the outright and second favourite to be evicted this evening. He is a nice guy, pretty fanciable and hasn’t done a lot to motivate people to evict him. A Lewis vs. Akeem narrative has developed over the last few weeks, so the only possibility of him getting evicted is if fans of Lewis are multi-voting to get out his biggest rival. However, looking online it doesn’t seem like they are organised enough in order to be successful in such a mission. With the whole of Wales likely to be behind him and the only straight male in this eviction line up, it would be very surprising to see him leave.

Cian is facing eviction this evening for the very first time. He also hasn’t done a lot wrong in the house and seems like great craic. A hilarious moment on last night’s show saw him hiding behind the sofa whilst Zoe was smoking a fag. He probably doesn’t need the luck of the Irish in order to survive tonight, as to me he seems the safest.

That leaves us with Tomasz, who I really think should be getting evicted tonight. At 1.26, the ‘value’ for this eviction better than it has been for much of the series. That gives him a 79% chance of going, but I think the true probability is higher than that. He was an early favourite and has provided many amusing moments throughout the series, but like many housemates on Big Brother, he has gone backwards in terms of popularity. This is because of excessive and overly competitive game-playing, and in the past couple of weeks he has been accused of talking inappropriately to Akeem, by constantly referring to him as ‘Daddy’. While many people will find this hilarious, being too overtly sexual is never a good thing on reality TV in terms of the vote, with the public placing him last in the viewer poll this week. The fact that he polled lower than the anonymous Sîan and boring Brooke is quite something. He therefore is going to massively struggle to find people willing to pay to save him (by voting for the other two) if people aren’t even going to vote for him for free. I am reliably informed that the highly conservative Polish diaspora across the UK will not support Tomasz, because he is gay.

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The outright market looks like a three-horse race, if you believe the market, which I don’t. Lewis is still the strong outright favourite, followed by Akeem and Cameron. I really think the market is massively overrating Cameron’s chances. Much like Zoe, he has been mopey and miserable for most of the series which hasn’t gone unnoticed by the viewers. You will struggle to find much support for him online at all, with fans not liking how he’s been corrupted by Lewis. In order for him to have any chance whatsoever, both Akeem and Lewis would have to get evicted before the final, which seems extremely unlikely and actually impossible if Akeem survives tonight. Even if that scenario did occur, I believe Cian would actually win the series as a likeable and agreeable default winner with a heart of gold. Despite drifting in the outright I have kept him as a very healthy green just in case.

Lewis’ support online seems incredibly robust and he seems to get away with acting up a lot. No matter what he does, his fans are extremely keen to say that they still like him and want him to win etc. Regardless of your feelings towards him, Lewis has given so much to this series and it would be a tragedy to have a final without him. Producers seem to agree, with them coming up with genius twists in order to keep him safe. I would personally rather watch 75 minutes of Supercasino than a final without Lewis, and you have to think that they have already figured out how to keep him safe from next Friday’s final eviction. If he makes the final, I think he wins quite easily. But the market right now is cautious with plenty speculating he could be leaving next week. Sîan and Zoe are also quite hated by the viewers and could see themselves in trouble next Friday night. Without Lewis in the frame, Akeem would be the obvious winner and it was encouraging for his backers to see 61% of viewers voting to say they think he deserves to be in the final. I don’t think Lewis’ Yes percentage would be anywhere near as high, if viewers were given a poll about him.

Brooke seems to be coming through as someone quite likeable on recent shows. With the public turning on Zoe, I have backed Brooke to be Top Female at odds between 3.0 and 3.5. She seems certain to be in the final now and would probably only have one of Zoe or Sîan to beat once she gets there. Still, she has no chance of winning the series which seems extremely likely to be won by a male.