One of Akeem, Cameron, Cian or Zoe will tonight be the last ever winner of Big Brother on Channel 5. The show’s future remains uncertain, but one thing I am sure of is that it is a devastating loss for terrestrial TV. The show that put was one of the first to put ordinary LGBT individuals on our screens comes to its conclusion with two gay men as the bookies favourites. I’ve been writing Big Brother betting analysis for over five years, but this could well be my last article on the show. Even if it does come back elsewhere, it would likely see some changes and there’s no guarantee that it will be possible to bet on it.
The market thinks that the most likely final 2 combination will be Cameron and Cian. The former lived in the shadow of Lewis F for most of the series and has only become favourite since his removal from the house. It is assumed that much of Lewis’s support will go to Cameron, but this a theory that I’m struggling to get my head around. I don’t see any reason why his fans wouldn’t vote for Akeem or Cian instead, lots will vote for no one at all and plenty of them will have switched off altogether.
One thing that Cameron does have in his favour, is the ‘coming out’ moment that seemed to fool a lot of the viewers at the time. However, plenty of fans seem to have discovered his vile YouTube videos, one of which where he had come out already. His ‘Rodney’ act is just that – an act. The Cameron we can see on YouTube and Twitter is a hateful, confident and cocky young man. He has been mopey and miserable for almost the entire series, so it would leave a bitter taste in my mouth if he was to go on and win it when there are more likeable alternatives. When I took my trip to Bit On The Side earlier in the series, I was surprised that plenty of people found Cameron amusing.
But Cameron isn’t the funniest housemate this series. That title belongs firmly to Cian, who has been consistently funny throughout the entire show. The Irish lad has been great craic and comes across as more likeable and authentic than the grumpy teenager. This is one reason why I think Cian will win the series. The viewers have been fooled by people acting on the show before – Brian Belo and Chloe from a couple of years ago spring to mind. Cian has shown us all sides of his personality, has gotten emotional and been highly amusing – all traits that so many former winners have possessed. For a lot of the series I felt like Cian would be a default winner, but he seems to be peaking at just the right time. Online metrics that I follow all have Cian winning quite easily. He seems to have a lot of momentum in places like Facebook and Twitter, with fans coalescing around Cian to stop Cameron from winning the series. The Republic of Ireland cannot vote this year which is an obvious disadvantage on paper, but Northern Ireland can and there are plenty of Irish diaspora living in the UK. This should give him more core support than Cameron who has next to no regional vote at all and definitely the smallest regional vote out of the final 4.
If Akeem ends up winning the series tonight, which I don’t think is very likely, then it will be purely down to the Welsh regional vote. The 26-year-old consultant from the Rhondda Valleys will pick up plenty of votes this evening for being a nice guy and quite fanciable to women. However, fans have been keen to point out that he appears too desperate to win, which I don’t see myself, but seems lots of people do. He did have a great moment just before the vote-to-win opened, when his bitch entered the house as part of a reward. I imagine this will have given him a decent start in the vote. Though I don’t see Akeem as a potential winner anymore, I don’t think it’s impossible and he does appear to be the second most popular contestant on Facebook, which I often find is very representative of the voting results. Perhaps if the voting figures are tiny and the Welsh vote is highly motivated then he could possibly do it, but I have him finishing third.
One important point to clarify is that there will be only one vote freeze tonight, at 9pm. This will be the vote that decides who finishes in third and fourth. Therefore, no votes will be wasted on Akeem at the Final 3 stage, assuming he polls higher than Zoe. This should impact on the eventual winner because it will in theory allow more time for people to vote between Cameron and Cian.
There’s often someone who suffers from a large anti-vote at the head-to-head stage for being so divisive. This series, it looks like Cameron would be the one receiving the anti-vote, with people voting en masse for Akeem or especially Cian, should they be lucky enough to go up against him.
Zoe is pretty much a non-entity in this final, and likely only just avoided Friday’s double eviction. I would be amazed if she finished any higher than fourth, despite the price crash on her today. She received a good edit in last night’s show but that still probably isn’t enough to get her above Akeem and it’s not really possible to make a case for her winning
I’m honestly very tempted to put Cameron as low as third place, but he takes the runner up spot in my prediction. He does so badly in some online stats metrics and quite well in others, and I think he might have peaked a bit early. He does have a ‘story’ and has been on a bit of a journey, which should be enough for him to make the head-to-head, especially as plenty of people will have been fooled by his act.
So, I will leave you with my final Top 4 prediction, and I will include the floor and ceiling positions of each housemate as I currently see them.
1st - Cian - (1st - 2nd)
2nd - Cameron - (1st - 3rd)
3rd - Akeem - (2nd - 3rd)
4th - Zoe - (4th)
Thanks for reading my Big Brother articles over the years. I hope you have enjoyed them and that they have been of some use to BB gamblers out there. Best of luck to everyone betting tonight.