Last year, the first BAFTA film award of the evening was for “Outstanding British Film”. It went to Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. The final award, for Best Film, also went to Three Billboards, with it winning two acting awards and a screenplay prize in between.
Though it was a very worthy film, there was a clearly a strong British bias factor influencing some of these results. After all, The Shape of Water went on to win Best Picture at the Oscars, with it also taking both the PGA and the DGA on its way.Three Billboards was technically a British film with an Irish director and didn’t actually win any Best Picture award in America that was voted for by Americans.
A similar amount of British bias might well be seen this year with Yorgos Lanthimos’ The Favourite. This bonkers period comedy/drama is the frontrunner at this year’s BAFTAs, with a whopping twelve nominations.
On paper, you might expect this year’s Outstanding British Film to easily go to The Favourite. It might well win. But there is also a case for Bohemian Rhapsody, which missed a nomination in the Best Film category and there is a strong history of BAFTA voters sharing the love and voting for something different to the main category. Then there was this story about director Bryan Singer’s nomination being removed after allegations of sexual abuse. The timing of this announcement is indeed suspicious, as voting has closed and so someone out there will know who has won. Will the organisers really want an accused paedophile going up on stage to collect an award? Though Bohemian Rhapsody was a huge box office smash and would make sense as a winner, I’m going for The Favourite here in terms of making a prediction. Stan & Ollie looks unlikely to win and wouldn’t be worthy.
The Favourite could well take the two female acting awards this year. Olivia Colman is beloved in the UK and has previously won four BAFTA TV awards. Though the Oscars may well end up going gaga for Glenn Close, it should really be Colman’s time to win on home ground despite recently losing the Critics’ Choice and SAG awards.
In Supporting Actress, odds-on Oscar favourite Regina King is not nominated here, which leaves a clear path for Rachel Weisz to take her first BAFTA for The Favourite. Amy Adams has not gained much traction for Vice and Emma Stone recently won a load of acting awards for La La Land. Backing Weisz to win the Supporting Actress Oscar at 18.0 recently was a no-brainer and will look very good indeed, assuming she wins on Sunday.
Moving away from The Favourite momentarily, Rami Malek looks set to win Best Actor after taking the SAG award for his portrayal of British icon Freddie Mercury. British-born Christian Bale could be a spoiler here, and has never won, though it seems the industry has fallen more in love with Malek and his performance.
Supporting Actor is a more interesting race between Mahershala Ali for Green Book and Richard E. Grant for Can You Ever Forgive Me? Neither have won a BAFTA before and many may think the latter is overdue. This is a very close call, but I’m going to predict Ali because he didn’t win for Moonlight and he has been such a strong favourite elsewhere, winning every major award for which he’s been nominated.
The Favourite should also win BAFTAs for Costume Design, Production Design, Original Screenplay and it also might have a shot at Editing. That category looks slightly open though, where Bohemian Rhapsody, First Man and Vice probably all have a chance. The ACE Eddie award for editing recently went to the Freddie Mercury biopic.
Adapted Screenplay isn’t straightforward either, but Spike Lee and BlacKkKlansman is my pick to win there. It is nominated in the Best Film category (among others) but will not win, and it doesn’t deserve to go home empty-handed.
Best Director, Cinematography and Film Not In The English Language are all locks for Alfonso Cuaron and Roma. In the Original Music and Sound categories, A Star Is Born should take the former but the latter is anyone’s guess. I’ll go with First Man based on an idea that voters might spread the love.
The biggest award of the night, Best Film, is a two-way fight between The Favourite and odds-on Oscar favourite for Best Picture, Roma. At this point in the ceremony, the former will have likely won five or six BAFTAs and the latter, three. Neither Yalitza Aparicio nor Marina de Tavira are recognised here in the acting categories.
This to me suggests that The Favourite has a lot more support amongst the British Academy, and that it will take the Best Film award. They are both worthy films with a lot of gravitas, though only The Favourite is actually entertaining out of the two. Netflix is not as big a deal in the UK as it is in Hollywood, so it feels like there will be less of a desire for Brits to award the production company likely to be at the forefront of the future of cinema. Spanish is also not widely spoken in the UK, like it is in America.
Double figure prices for The Favourite to win the Oscar will no longer be available if it wins Best Film here, and there it is one of the few films with all the pre-requisite nominations in Film Editing, Director, Screenplay and Acting (the others are BlacKkKlansman and Vice). I have been backing it accordingly with the hope of trading later.
For potential bragging rights, I’ll post a full list of my predicted winners below, apart from the really minor categories where in all honesty I would just be guessing.
BLACKkKLANSMAN Jason Blum, Spike Lee, Raymond Mansfield, Sean McKittrick, Jordan Peele
THE FAVOURITE Ceci Dempsey, Ed Guiney, Yorgos Lanthimos, Lee Magiday
GREEN BOOK Jim Burke, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly, Nick Vallelonga, Charles B. Wessler
ROMA Alfonso Cuarón, Gabriela Rodríguez
A STAR IS BORN Bradley Cooper, Bill Gerber, Lynette Howell Taylor
OUTSTANDING BRITISH FILM
BEAST Michael Pearce, Kristian Brodie, Lauren Dark, Ivana MacKinnon
BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY Graham King, Anthony McCarten
THE FAVOURITE Yorgos Lanthimos, Ceci Dempsey, Ed Guiney, Lee Magiday, Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara
McQUEEN Ian Bonhôte, Peter Ettedgui, Andee Ryder, Nick Taussig
STAN & OLLIE Jon S. Baird, Faye Ward, Jeff Pope
YOU WERE NEVER REALLY HERE Lynne Ramsay, Rosa Attab, Pascal Caucheteux, James Wilson
FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
CAPERNAUM Nadine Labaki, Khaled Mouzanar
COLD WAR Paweł Pawlikowski, Tanya Seghatchian, Ewa Puszczyńska
DOGMAN Matteo Garrone
ROMA Alfonso Cuarón, Gabriela Rodríguez
SHOPLIFTERS Hirokazu Kore-eda, Kaoru Matsuzaki
INCREDIBLES 2 Brad Bird, John Walker
ISLE OF DOGS Wes Anderson, Jeremy Dawson
SPIDER-MAN: INTO THE SPIDER-VERSE Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman, Phil Lord
BLACKkKLANSMAN Spike Lee
COLD WAR Paweł Pawlikowski
THE FAVOURITE Yorgos Lanthimos
ROMA Alfonso Cuarón
A STAR IS BORN Bradley Cooper
COLD WAR Janusz Głowacki, Paweł Pawlikowski
THE FAVOURITE Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara
GREEN BOOK Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly, Nick Vallelonga
ROMA Alfonso Cuarón
VICE Adam McKay
BLACKkKLANSMAN Spike Lee, David Rabinowitz, Charlie Wachtel, Kevin Willmott
CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME? Nicole Holofcener, Jeff Whitty
FIRST MAN Josh Singer
IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK Barry Jenkins
A STAR IS BORN Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters, Eric Roth
GLENN CLOSE The Wife
LADY GAGA A Star Is Born
MELISSA McCARTHY Can You Ever Forgive Me?
OLIVIA COLMAN The Favourite
VIOLA DAVIS Widows
BRADLEY COOPER A Star Is Born
CHRISTIAN BALE Vice
RAMI MALEK Bohemian Rhapsody
STEVE COOGAN Stan & Ollie
VIGGO MORTENSEN Green Book
AMY ADAMS Vice
CLAIRE FOY First Man
EMMA STONE The Favourite
MARGOT ROBBIE Mary Queen of Scots
RACHEL WEISZ The Favourite
ADAM DRIVER BlacKkKlansman
MAHERSHALA ALI Green Book
RICHARD E. GRANT Can You Ever Forgive Me?
SAM ROCKWELL Vice
TIMOTHÉE CHALAMET Beautiful Boy
BLACKkKLANSMAN Terence Blanchard
IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK Nicholas Britell
ISLE OF DOGS Alexandre Desplat
MARY POPPINS RETURNS Marc Shaiman
A STAR IS BORN Bradley Cooper, Lady Gaga, Lukas Nelson
BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY Newton Thomas Sigel
COLD WAR Łukasz Żal
THE FAVOURITE Robbie Ryan
FIRST MAN Linus Sandgren
ROMA Alfonso Cuarón
BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY John Ottman
THE FAVOURITE Yorgos Mavropsaridis
FIRST MAN Tom Cross
ROMA Alfonso Cuarón, Adam Gough
VICE Hank Corwin
FANTASTIC BEASTS: THE CRIMES OF GRINDELWALD Stuart Craig, Anna Pinnock
THE FAVOURITE Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton
FIRST MAN Nathan Crowley, Kathy Lucas
MARY POPPINS RETURNS John Myhre, Gordon Sim
ROMA Eugenio Caballero, Bárbara Enríquez
THE BALLAD OF BUSTER SCRUGGS Mary Zophres
BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY Julian Day
THE FAVOURITE Sandy Powell
MARY POPPINS RETURNS Sandy Powell
MARY QUEEN OF SCOTS Alexandra Byrne
MAKE UP & HAIR
BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY Mark Coulier, Jan Sewell
THE FAVOURITE Nadia Stacey
MARY QUEEN OF SCOTS Jenny Shircore
STAN & OLLIE Mark Coulier, Jeremy Woodhead, Josh Weston
VICE Kate Biscoe, Greg Cannom, Patricia DeHaney, Chris Gallaher
BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY John Casali, Tim Cavagin, Nina Hartstone, Paul Massey, John Warhurst
FIRST MAN Mary H. Ellis, Mildred Iatrou Morgan, Ai-Ling Lee, Frank A. Montaño, Jon Taylor
MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - FALLOUT Gilbert Lake, James H. Mather, Chris Munro, Mike Prestwood Smith
A QUIET PLACE Erik Aadahl, Michael Barosky, Brandon Proctor, Ethan Van der Ryn
A STAR IS BORN Steve Morrow, Alan Robert Murray, Jason Ruder, Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic
SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS
AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR Dan DeLeeuw, Russell Earl, Kelly Port, Dan Sudick
BLACK PANTHER Geoffrey Baumann, Jesse James Chisholm, Craig Hammack, Dan Sudick
FANTASTIC BEASTS: THE CRIMES OF GRINDELWALD Tim Burke, Andy Kind, Christian Manz, David Watkins
FIRST MAN Ian Hunter, Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, J.D. Schwalm
READY PLAYER ONE Matthew E. Butler, Grady Cofer, Roger Guyett, David Shirk